Season Update - What is Happening in Sarasota?
The post below is from our other blog at DwellingWell.com. You can read it here - Season Update - How is the Sarasota Market?
Last month we were one of the first brokerages to start talking about the slow down in the Sarasota real estate market. After I wrote the blog post I received phone calls from many area Realtors confirming the slow down. Some real estate professionals will only talk about a slow down behind closed doors but are afraid to discuss it publicly. The Sarasota Herald Tribune decided to write about it as well - Read here. Here is my original post talking about how January 2016 had fewer home sales than January 2015 - January 2015 vs January 2016.
Below you will find data showing sales stats comparing February 2015 to February 2016 as well as comparisons over a longer time period of both January + February of each year. If you want to skip all of the gritty details and just see the conclusions click here.
Sarasota County
Below is a chart showing sold, pended and properties for sale in Sarasota county. Compared to February 2015, Sarasota county has 5.6% more homes and condos for sale, 7.8% fewer sales and roughly the same number of properties pended this year.
One interesting statistic to point out is the average sold price difference from February of 2016 to the same period as last year. It went from $276,000 to $351,000. That is a 27% increase! Perhaps that is why inventories have increased. Sellers might be thinking this is a great time to cash out or downsize.
| February 2015 | February 2016 | % Change | |
| Months of Inventory (closed sales) | 4.8 | 5.5 | +14% |
| Average Sold Price | $276,000 | $351,000 | +27% |
| Median Sold Price | $190,000 | $225,000 | +18% |
| Days on Market | 76 | 66 | -13% |
Jan/Feb 2015 vs. Jan/Feb 2016 - Sarasota County
It is wise to look at sales across a longer time period than just one month. I added sales and pended sales for January and February in both 2015 and 2016. The number of properties sold in Sarasota county decreased 5% and pended properties also decreased 7% this year when compared to the same two months last year.
| Jan & Feb 2015 | Jan & Feb 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties Sold | 1,642 | 1,557 | -5% |
| Properties Pended | 2,439 | 2,269 | -7% |
Manatee County
Just like Sarasota, Manatee county inventories increased and sales decreased. However, pended properties increased 16.6% while pended properties in Sarasota were down slightly. That is a good sign for future closings. Notice that the average and median sold prices didn't change much. Perhaps the large increase in pending sales was due to the small increase in home prices. The drop in pending sales in Sarasota county might be from the large increase in average sold price.
| February 2015 | February 2016 | % Change | |
| Months of Inventory (closed sales) | 4.7 | 5.5 | +16.9% |
| Average Sold Price | $267,000 | $267,000 | no change |
| Median Sold Price | $215,000 | $220,000 | +2% |
| Days on Market | 80 | 65 | - 18.7% |
Jan/Feb 2015 vs. Jan/Feb 2016 - Manatee County
Combining the number of sold & pended properties for January and February shows that Manatee county had 5.6% fewer sales and a slight increase of 2% for pended properties.
| Jan & Feb 2015 | Jan & Feb 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties Sold | 1,215 | 1,146 | -5.6% |
| Properties Pended | 1,620 | 1,658 | +2% |
Lido Key, Bird Key and Downtown Sarasota (34236) - February Comparison
| February 2015 | February 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties For Sale | 309 | 373 | +20.7% |
| Properties Sold | 32 | 40 | +25% |
| Properties Pended | 53 | 41 | -22.6% |
| Months of Inventory (closed sales) | 9.7 | 9.3 | -4.1% |
| Average Sold Price | $641,000 | $1,028,000 | +60% |
| Median Sold Price | $443,000 | $675,000 | +52% |
| Days on Market | 133 | 52 | -60% |
The number of homes and condos in the 34236 zip code, which includes downtown Sarasota, Bird Key and Lido Key, increased by almost 21%. The number of properties sold increased by 25% but the number of pending sales decreased by almost 23%. The 60% increase in the average sold price was skewed by several closings in the new condos at One88 and Park Residences on Lido Key.
Jan/Feb 2015 vs. Jan/Feb 2016 - Lido Key, Bird Key and Downtown Sarasota
| Jan + Feb 2015 | Jan + Feb 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties Sold | 58 | 68 | +17% |
| Properties Pended | 97 | 89 | -8% |
Longboat Key - February Comparison
| February 2015 | February 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties For Sale | 368 | 377 | +2.4% |
| Properties Sold | 34 | 32 | -5.9% |
| Properties Pended | 51 | 62 | +21.6% |
| Months of Inventory (closed sales) | 10.8 | 11.8 | +9.2% |
| Average Sold Price | $748,000 | $1,199,000 | +60% |
| Median Sold Price | $551,000 | $525,000 | -4.7% |
| Days on Market | 112 | 137 | +22.3% |
The number of Longboat Key homes and condos remained about the same when comparing February 2015 to 2016. The number of properties sold on the island decreased by about 6%, however the pending sales increased by 21.6%! Again, that bodes well for future closings.
Jan/Feb 2015 vs. Jan/Feb 2016 - Longboat Key
| Jan + Feb 2015 | Jan + Feb 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties Sold | 72 | 64 | -11% |
| Properties Pended | 102 | 97 | -4.9% |
Siesta Key - February Comparison
| February 2015 | February 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties For Sale | 394 | 342 | -13.2% |
| Properties Sold | 24 | 27 | +12.5% |
| Properties Pended | 43 | 38 | -11.6% |
| Months of Inventory (closed sales) | 16.4 | 12.7 | -22.5% |
| Average Sold Price | $681,000 | $806,000 | +18% |
| Median Sold Price | $580,000 | $594,000 | +2.4% |
| Days on Market | 127 | 146 | -15% |
The number of Siesta Key homes and condos for sale dropped over 13% when compared to the same time period last year. Sales increased nicely on the island while pending properties dropped over 11%.
Jan/Feb 2015 vs. Jan/Feb 2016 - Siesta Key
| Jan + Feb 2015 | Jan + Feb 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties Sold | 60 | 64 | +6% |
| Properties Pended | 85 | 71 | -16% |
Lakewood Ranch Area (34211 & 34202) - February Comparison
| February 2015 | February 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties For Sale | 395 | 535 | +35.4% |
| Properties Sold | 70 | 64 | -8.6% |
| Properties Pended | 111 | 117 | +5.4% |
| Months of Inventory (closed sales) | 5.6 | 8.4 | +20.7% |
| Average Sold Price | $458,000 | $439,000 | -4.1% |
| Median Sold Price | $400,000 | $390,000 | -2.5% |
| Days on Market | 71 | 63 | -11% |
Jan/Feb 2015 vs. Jan/Feb 2016 - Lakewood Ranch
| Jan + Feb 2015 | Jan + Feb 2016 | % Change | |
| Properties Sold | 143 | 124 | -13.2% |
| Properties Pended | 219 | 186 | -15% |
The number of properties for sale in Lakewood Ranch increased by a whopping 35.4%. Sold properties declined 8.6% and pended properties increased 5.4% from February 2015 to February 2016. Take a look at the Months of Inventory figures. It went from 5.6 months to 8.4% or a 20% increase. Sellers in Lakewood Ranch should take note of this.
Conclusion
Pending Properties Comparison
| Jan/Feb 2015 | Jan/Feb 2016 | % Change | |
| Sarasota County | 2,439 | 2,269 | -7% |
| Manatee County | 1,620 | 1,658 | +2% |
| Lido Key, Bird Key & Downtown Sarasota | 97 | 89 | -8% |
| Longboat Key | 102 | 97 | -4.9% |
| Siesta Key | 85 | 71 | -16% |
| Lakewood Ranch | 219 | 186 | -15% |
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Pending properties are a sign of future closings. They are down in most areas of Sarasota.
- People should not panic when homes sales slow down. It is ok for the market to take a breather.
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Rampant appreciation of home prices can cause big problems. Remember 2003 to 2005?
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Over anxious sellers with unrealistic asking prices should read this blog post twice. ;-)
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